Expected Value calculator
Plug in your estimate of the true win probability and the book's odds. We'll tell you whether the bet is +EV and by how much.
Enter a wager, American odds, and your estimate of the true win probability to see the bet's expected value.
What this tool tells you
Expected value (EV) is the average $ outcome of this bet if you placed it many times. Positive EV bets profit in the long run; negative EV bets lose. One +EV bet can lose; one −EV bet can win. Discipline is what compounds.
Edgeis your estimated probability minus the book's implied probability. A 5-point edge means you think the true odds are 5 percentage points different from what the book is offering. Bigger edge = more conviction needed in your estimate.
For UFC and NFL, our in-app +EV Scanner does this math automatically across every fight × side × book.